How many more days of mourning?

By Shamim-ur-Rahman

Yet another day of mourning passed in Karachi without any qualitative change in the ground realities. Although the shutters were pulled down on Muttahida’s call in which others also joined, the guns did not fall silent and fear of the unknown loomed large as there was no guarantee for security of life and property of the people.

The decline in death toll on the day of mourning was surprising and one wonders whether it was due to mutually agreed truce between the armed mafias and their protectors or was it a coincidence. Where the armed men had fizzled out? The element of fear and insecurity has gripped the psyche of the people of Karachi who are being sucked into a black whole due to short sighted, inept and corrupt political leadership; inefficient state apparatus to deal with the menace of terrorism; and the undeclared turf war between ambitious Establishment and the political leadership.

While the government lacks the capacity to come hard on the terrorists, other stake holders and political parties are not willing to accept their responsibility in spoiling the broth. Terrorist seem to have the initiative because of the absence of a well trained and well equipped police force and lack of efficient intelligence network to track down the killers. It is common knowledge that good intelligence is key to the success of any operation. But the government seems to have not realized its importance and believes in mere show of force by temporarily deploying Police or Rangers at different places. Interior minister Rahman Malik has made a mockery of operations against the terrorists by every now and then making promises that he never honoured, thus causing further criticism of the government. Instead of injecting fear among the terrorist through indiscriminate actions he has instilled fear among the rulers and compelled them to remain in a state of perpetual siege, instead of being among the people. Experts believe that if at all the government was serious about dealing with the menace of terrorism and gun running, it will have to resort to non-partisan community policing backed by strong intelligence gathering network.

Despite all the manslaughter the major stake holders are not prepared to come out of the state of denial and face facts. Facts that are common sense and are known to one and all. To deal with terrorism in Karachi it is imperative for the leadership of different political parties to isolate militant armed groups they support. Without that there can be no end to killings and proliferation of weapons of all sorts. Unfortunately in the current phase of bloodletting in the city it was just the opposite.Policing has to be reorganized in more scientific manner and merit should be the sole criteria.

We have failed in curbing crime and terrorism through police because it is said that many of them got the job after paying bribe to their superiors. So their main objective is to make more money, even if it came from supporting the mafia’s interests. That is one of the reasons why Karachi is bleeding.

Everyday we hear the sermon that Karachi is economic hub of Pakistan and its stability was key to the country’s progress and security, but the administrative measures required to ensure that are lacking. The breakdown of administrative apparatus infested with corruption has provided upper hand to the terrorists.

Terrorism in Karachi has become a thriving economic proposition at the expense of the state. Terrorism is thriving due to corruption of law enforcement machinery and other decision makers and is eroding the state foundations like termite. But the big question is who is providing these resources? Is it philanthropy or investment? If it was philanthropy then this kind of money could easily set up aperson in small business or pay for his education. Why is philanthropy being shown in buying weapons and killing people? If this is an investment then where from are the returns of this investment in crime coming? Who are the main partners, besides themain investors? How is the surplus created and distributed? What is the methodology of earning huge profits through the use of guns and terror? How this methodology is being put in practice?Investments are always made in areas where the returns are expected tobe the maximum. Why the investments are being made in Karachi? Why not elsewhere?

Karachi is the best option for these investments since this is the place where the wealth is. A good portion of Karachi’s wealth is regularly siphoned off in the form of bribes, tax evasion, extortion at gun point, grabbing of assets and many other ways. The functionaries of the state, whose prime duty it is to stop this siphoning off of wealth have over a period of time become partners in this loot. From income tax employees to the purchase departments of so many institutions to police department official there is no dearth of persons who are a part and parcel of this urban “economic model”.But these are ones that have the academic qualification and haveregular employments in the state structure.

There is a multitude that can be placed in the category of those who do not have a means of living, neither can find one and have to live on the resources of others either begged or snatched. They don’t have the authority and the powers of the state. They have to depend on their muscle/gun power. Hence the menace of extortion, land grabbing, narcotics trade, kidnapping for ransom, smuggling and flesh trade, and gun running. All these operations, rather all commercial operations are competitive. In philanthropies different stake holders co-operate with each other. In commercial operations there is fierce competition for additional space. Those who do not grow ultimately perish. So there comes no point where one is satisfied with the space or the wealth he has acquired. Rather the larger and more powerful one is the more is the need to dominate and to oppress, to acquire an even larger space.These mafias compete for space, or areas within Karachi. Those who pay include ‘Bhatta’ in their cost of production or business expensesand pass on the costs to ultimate consumers. Those who receive Bhatta also divide it according to well established “Sharing Formulas” amongall stake holders.

Whether political parties accept or not it is common knowledge that mafia’s provide the required funds for electioneering and muscle power to some political parties. Some parties that have to depend on their genuine voters try to discourage the involvement of militants since it is bad for their image and diminishes public support for them. Some tolerate them and also use them in certain situations in a defensive mode. Others put total reliance on them for generating funds not only for the running of their party but also for ostentatious living of their leaders and workers. Those who depend on stamping of ballot papers have no use for the genuine voters. They depend on occupying polling stations by force and terrorizing the people to keep them away from polling stations where they do not expect to get votes. That is where the militants come handy. Target killings are operations carried out to eliminate rival cadres and to inject the element of fear in them besides preventing them from entering their territory.Very often the group if not the particular killer is known to the local police and the local population. Encroachments and entries into “enemy” territories are also not possible without police cover and support. Thus which group is indulging in crime in which area is an open secret. Those who suffer know best and fully as to who are oppressing them.

Citizens are the ultimate sufferers both as indirect payers of extortions and victims of turf war between militants. They also have all the knowledge about the perpetrators of the crime. Fear about their own safety and the safety of their kith and kin stops themfrom coming forward and resisting the militants. Police personnel specially those at the lower level while being fully aware of the identity of the criminals and being fully capable of acting against them do not do so because of fear of reprisals.

Fear of the militants has reached a level where even if acriminal is arrested; the prosecution makes a weak case against him. Situation can only improve if political parties decided among themselves to back the political process, not the militants, and sort out their differences through negotiations instead of fighting it out in the streets of Karachi. --ENDS

Paving the way for Bonapartists

Paving the way for Bonapartists

By: Shamim-ur-Rahman

With more than a 100 people killed in the city during the past week, and government’s failure to firmly deal with the menace of terrorism in Pakistan’s economic hub, the city is rapidly being sucked into a quagmire of annihilation.

Target killings, gang wars over land grabbing and extortion money, and extending the fiefdom for greater share in the booty and political power, has injected a new wave of anarchy and extremism in this port city that was once the city of lights and safe heaven for forward looking liberals. It has become home for extremist groups backed by criminal mafias and certain political elements.

According to one estimate Rs 3 billion is the daily loss of revenue to the government from industries during a day of strike. This was besides the loss incurred by traders, transporters, and daily wage earners. A conservative estimate is that revenue loss during the past 12 strike calls since March 3, 2011 was more than 60 billion rupees that had a crippling effect on the national economy. This also reflects hollowness of the claims of political parties about their concern for the wellbeing and progress of Pakistan’s economic hub. MQM, PPP, ANP, and nationalists and religious political parties all had their role in crippling the economy.

Instead of improving the security environment their strike has further aggravated the situation due to the scale and consistency of killings in the city.Their conflict has also resulted in unaccounted for loss of man hours in the industry and other workplace. It has also resulted in loss of studies in the educational institutions and has caused sever strain on the students and their parents. While political parties continue to fight their turf war and the government has failed to address bread and butter issues and providing employment, religious extremists, including elements belonging to Taliban have also entrenched themselves in the metropolis, making the battle for controlling Karachi even deadlier.

But the current wave of killing was not their handiwork. Credit goes to those who claimed themselves to be liberals, secular and democratic. They once again injected ethnicity in the conflict to agitate public sentiments in their favour for maintaining their hold. Most of the time, according to reports, those involved in target killings are party activists, but after each round of blood letting the blame is shifted on the ‘land mafia’ “drug mafia” or “bhatta mafia” and other criminal elements.

There is little attempt at introspection and weeding out violent elements from within their own rank and file. There were reports that after the arrest of some important operatives the fighting became more intense to pressure government to release them. None of the political parties accept it, but credible intelligence reports suggest that all the major political parties the city were heavily armed and trained in the use of firearms. Since political parties are not prepared to drop criminal elements and those who provide the muscle and fire power from the band wagon, situation has become graver.

Perhaps the habit of extravagant living and the need of more funds to run party affairs compel them to do so. Ironically this has significantly injected drug money in the activities of political parties and extremists elements operating in the city. Stakes are so high that if the situation is allowed to continue like this, the city will become the real battlefield like Beirut because there is so much of arms and ammunition in possession of the combatants.

The MQM’s fall back on ethnic sentiments to protect its moorings in the current crisis and its conflict with the ANP amid scaremongering against a possible Taliban take over, has complicated the situation and has also increased the covert involvement of external elements in this port city. There is a perception that the current blood bath was some how related to the issue of differences between MQM, ANP and the PPP over local bodies issue. MQM is not prepared to accept anybody’s “encroachment” in its fiefdom and hence its clash with ANP and PPP.

City District government of Karachi was considered as the bastion of MQM’s power. It used its control of the CDGK to extend its influence. ANP is now claiming to be the custodian of the interests of Pashtuns who have settled in Karachi and demanding more representation on the ground. Similar demands are also being made by the PPP which is the leading political party of the province and the country. Thus, the present precarious law-and-order situation in Karachi is the off shoot of their competing politics of control over city.

The indecisiveness and incompetence of the government to deal firmly with the terrorists could be politically catastrophic, and we may be plunged into a situation that may be even more dangerous than the early 1990s. The recent bloodbath and the growing trust deficit between the politicalparties in Sindh are bad omen. It is pushing the dispensation to the edge amid fear of anarchy and centrifugal forces gaining upper hand.

Already Karachi situation is being used to justify replacement of the current civilian dispensation with Establishment-backed judiciary-led caretaker arrangement. Efforts are on to muster political support for such an arrangement. But events in Karachi cannot be controlled like that. It has to be through a genuine consensus among the political stake holders. Otherwise the city of lights may be turned into a city of warlords with horrifying consequences for the country. ENDS .

Deluge threaten Bhutto's eternal abode

Pakistan's Rich and Poor

By Imtiaz Gul



Garhi Khuda Bux (Sind) - Once again, the tide of goodwill in the aftermath of the super-flood favours Pakistan. By himself flying over the affected areas and later giving a graphic description of the devastationthe UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon persuaded members of his organization to step forward and help Pakistan cope with the consequences of what he described as the “slow-motion tsunami.”



And rightly so. It is indeed a “slow-motion Tsunami” because it will now amplify the consequences of a system that rests on a morally bankrupt, intellectually poor, politically self-serving, culturally bigoted and financially corrupt ruling elite comprising politicians, bureaucracy, feudal lords, generals and their apologists in all spheres of life.



And the Garhi Khuda Bux – the ancestral town the Bhuttos – exemplifies the disconnect between this ruling elite and the hapless masses on the one hand, and the misplaced priorities on the other; a huge domed complex now stands over the old graveyard where all the Bhuttos are resting. The three-dombed marble complex is now called the Mazar- the mausoleum, built with public money – drawn from the provincial and the federal kitty. A huge boundary wall, running into hundreds of meters, is being built as the foreyard of the mausoleum, all with expensive holed-blocs, imported from Karachi.



Both and inside the mausoleum, dozens of half-naked children and elderly locals are idling around. Some barefoot, some without shirts, you can count the rib-cage of these emaciated figures. Their faces betray the story of poverty and the miserable life they live under the shadow of this towering complex. Looking at the physical expense and the financial expense incurred on it, it appears as if poverty , education and health facilities for the thousands living by the mausoleum have been taken care of.



The lay-out of the graves inside offers even more disconcerting and reflects how the quest for personal and undivided glory precedes human relations; beside the grave of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto is the resting place of the daughter i.e. Benazir Bhutto. Behind these two lie the graves of grandparents but where are the two brothers – Murtaza and Shahnawaz – we ask one of the frail care-takers. He points to two graves behind us – several meters away from the two P.M. graves behind a huge column. Rather than being beside their father, the two brothers were buried at the foot-side of senior Bhutto.



We try to ask for the reason and none of the “wretched of Garhi Khuda Bux” dares tell us the truth; they say the mazar committee incharge must have decided where the brothers would be buried. We don’t expect any better explanation from these down-trodden faithful followers of senior Bhutto. We can only infer that the sister was so overwhelmed with power and authority that she decided to put the brothers away from their father, practically in isolation of others.



Once outside the Mausoleum, we witness more scenes of grueling poverty in the village, with men and women toiling in the sweltering humid heat. This place of phenomenal contrasts only a few kilometers away from Rato Panjdero, Rato Dero and Larkana, the town which the Bhuttos used a launching pad for their political careers.



While driving past these poverty-stricken villages, one wonders how these poor farmers and daily wage workers feel when their representatives zoom past them in their land-cruisers or flying over their heads in helicopters. The dividend of empowerment flows to the elected ones and those empowering them remain stuck in perennial poverty.



Larkana itself represents another distressing story of neglect and extremely poor governance. Dusty, broken and tattered roads, choked sewage lines boiling on to the roads, parts of the town littered with garbage. This is the scene today of the town that gave Pakistan two prime ministers.



Almost a 100,000 displaced from Garhi Khairo and Shahdadkot in particular have taken refuge in Larkana, which is protected by two protective dykes – Nusrat Loop Band and Aqil Aghani Band -. Dozens of heavy machines – tractors, excavators – have been working round the clock to reinforce these dykes to protect , Larkana from the wild overflow of the Indus.



One wonders whether other towns currently submerged in water – Kubo Saeed Khan, Shahdadkot, Thattha, Nasirabad, Rojhan Jamali and scores of others also received the same unusual vigilance. Probably not.



Mother Nature played havoc in October 2005. It is wreaking havoc again in August 2010. It has dispossessed the majority of those living along or near the Indus River basin, while those empowered by the majority are once again stuck in their point-scoring, selfish squabbles, eyeing dividends that will flow from the aid for those affected. God save the hapless majority.


Imtiaz Gul is a senior journalist and political and security analyst working for German radio and many international publications. For his intrusive analysis visit his website www.imtiazgul.com

indus saga

Indus Saga

Modern Indus civilization

devastated by floods

By Shamim-ur-Rahman

The fury of the raging Indus , one of the mightiest rivers on planet Earth has uprooted almost everything from its foundations, swept away many to eternal abode , and has made millions shelter less and refugees in their own country which is unable to deal with this one of the greatest human tragedy of modern times. The UN Secretary General has described it much greater a tragedy than Tsunami and the 2005 earthquake in Pakistan and Haiti’s tragedy.

Water is everywhere with hardly any space to bury the dead. Those who survived the suddenness of the fury of Hydra were now suffering from water-borne diseases. Scores are losing the battle for survival every day. A large number of people, especially children, were suffering from diarrhea, skin diseases, and above all the trauma of losing everything including the family moorings.

Roads, bridges, railway track, homes and other public utilities have been devastated while millions of acres of agriculture land has been swallowed by the mighty Indus. Crops that would have fetched billions of rupees have been destroyed and the farmers do not have the seeds to grow the next crop when the water recedes. There is hardly anything left for the grazing of livestock which has died in thousands. While the flood water will eventually recede and mingle with the sea water, its aftermath is more horrifying.

While Pakistan’s resources are very meager and stretched due to its frontline role in the global war on terrorism, it has become global community’s responsibility for the survival of this nuclearised torch bearer of the ancient Indus valley civilization that has seen many ups and downs.

If the world community failed or slackened in mobilizing sufficient funds and plans on fast track basis, it might be providing space to extremists and ideologically militants backing many non-state actors to overthrow the democratic dispensation that can only survive if it can deliver the bread and butter needs of the people, provide them shelter, education and health care.

In the past the decline of the Indus civilization has been attributed to changes in the courses of Indus and Ravi, changing pattern of monsoon, as is the case of climate change at the moment.

If no swift and serious action plan is devised and implemented, the natural calamity might cause erosion of a vibrant democratic polity in the region. The real challenge therefore is to determine the inner ailment of the successor of Indus civilization. While the government here is making all sorts of efforts to overcome the tragedy and resettle the uprooted people, the international community must understand that if it did not allow Pakistan to rebuild infrastructure and provide basic amenities at cheaper cost for sometimes, such as gas, electricity, gas, petrol and fertilizer, it will be doing a great disservice to the humanity. In that case democracy will lose and extremism will become a dominant force. The rise of extremism in Pakistan is linked to high cost of input that has made its industries non-competitive, rendered millions jobless while the government is unable to address their bread and butter issues due to lack of resources, making the country heavily dependent on the World Bank and IMF salvage baskets. Pakistanis are determined to change this situation as quickly as possible by rebuilding their country and protect it from extremists and jingoist elements that have become a serious threat to the international community.

The enormity of the floods is evident from the accompanying video prepared by my daughter Ayesha Rehman. Visit http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lXvMeokJio

Indus changing its course?

Indus Changing Its Course

By Shamim-ur-Rahman
Due to silting Sukkur Barrage cannot withstand the pressures of high floods, as has been witnessed in the past.The River Indus is the lifeline of Pakistan. However, due to inadequate maintenance of its embankments and massive silting, fears have been expressed that the Indus might change its course again, which will have a grave impact on the economy of Sindh.Every time the Indus changed its course in the past, the irrigation system was destroyed resulting in political upheavals.Sukkur Barrage is vital to the country’s agro-economy, especially Sindh and Balochistan. A warning was sounded when two of the gates on its right side had to be repaired during General Musharraf’s tenure. There were even suggestions to build another barrage at a convenient place upstream to tame the Indus. If urgent steps are not taken, historians may accuse us of destroying our civilisation.Recently at a Sindh Assembly briefing Elahi Bux Soomro, the former Speaker of the National Assembly (himself an engineer), pointed out the dangers faced by Sukkur Barrage in northern Sindh.The danger became noticeable because of non-maintenance. If immediate corrective measures are not taken, the barrage may not last for more than eight to 10 years.There is also a danger of large-scale destruction and the river changing its course permanently in the case of high floods, which are not unusual. Due to silting the barrage cannot withstand the pressure of high floods, as witnessed in the past.Silt has been allowed to accumulate in upstream of the barrage. As a result, new islands have appeared. One large island is blocking seven gates of the barrage.The areas of the old natural islands of Sadhu Bela and the one which connects the Lansdown train bridge to the main banks at Rohri and Sukkur have increased manifold due to the accumulated silt along the river banks. The size of the channel has been reduced to one-third of its original size.What is worst is the fact that parks, restaurants, houses, mosques and other structures have been allowed to be built on these new islands and silt banks. Large scale cultivation with embankments erected to keep out the high flows of the river can be seen all over within the river course.In the original design of the barrage two-mile long guide walls were built on both banks of the river. These walls went right up to Lansdown Railway Bridge.No structures or encroachment was allowed within these walls in order to ensure that the width of the river was protected at all times. Regular cleaning of the silt from the river banks was carried out to ensure that the depth of the pond was maintained.Sukkur Barrage is known to have taken high-floods of one million plus cusecs easily. In 1973 and 1976 it withstood flows of 1.4 million cusecs. With the width of the channel reduced to one-third, obstacles and encroachments have appeared within the guide walls and experts feel that a flow of 500, 000 cusecs may be difficult to pass.They also fear that in the case of high-floods the river may break its banks upstream of Sukkur and the cities of Jacobabad, Larkana, Shikarpur and hundreds of villages in the area may come under water. The river may also adopt a new permanent course after breaking its banks making Sukkur Barrage redundant.The protective walls at the mouth of the canals on both banks are a part of the design and were built in order to stop silt from the mainstream from going into the canals and heavily silting them up.Canals draw their water from the narrow channels between the protective walls and the canal heads. The width of these channels on the two banks covers five gates of the barrage on the right side and six on the left bank.Removing silt accumulating in these channels is part of the maintenance routine of the barrage. Under this procedure depth-soundings are taken within these narrow channels on a daily basis in order to ascertain the amount of silt collecting at the bottom.Whenever the amount of silt goes above the maximum permissible level, the gates of canals are closed and those of the barrage are opened for a few hours to let the silt pass downstream with the flow.Usually this scarring operation, as it is called, is undertaken every 30 or 40 days. For the last four years depth soundings have not been recorded and the scarring operation is being conducted only presently after a gap of almost four years.Naturally the gates of the barrage on side channels are being opened for as long as 48 hours in the present operation instead of the usual six to eight hours. The operation may not succeed as the silt accumulated over the years may have transformed into a firm riverbed. In that case, a large scale and costly dredging would be the only available option.With the bed of the river having gone up and demands in the re-modelled canals rising, a grave situation is emerging.Now water is flowing above the gates of the barrage in the canal but the gates have been designed to let the water flow under them and not over them.New pressure on the gates is developing and if one or two gates of the barrage give way, there will be no barrage left.Irrigation officials are in a fix as to how this problem could be tackled while ensuring increased flow into the canals.However, there cannot be a compromise on removing the encroachments within the guide walls and restoring the width of the pond to its designed size. There may be a problem because of the construction of three mosques which may be difficult to remove.An expert, however, believes that in the case of a flood of 500,000 cusec plus, not only these three, but many other mosques situated on the right bank will go under water apart from damaging the barrage.Some analysts believe that changes in the course of the River Indus and decline in the irrigation system had made the conquest of Sindh easy for Mohammad bin Qasim. Experts are also of the view that choking up of the canal’s mouth or falling into the level of the river will create precarious conditions for farmers.Sukkur Barrage is meant to maintain the desired level of water on the upstream side of river. When the water in the river is in excess, surplus must be allowed to flow downstream by raising the gates. When there is shortfall, the flow of water downstream is either reduced or cut off to maintain the desired level on the upstream.

published in Daily Dawn Oct 12, 2008
www.dawn.com

battlefield city

Battlefield city
By: Shamim-ur-Rahman

Internecine political battles are making Karachi a dangerous place to live




A new extremism has developed in Pakistan’s economic hub, Karachi, a city that is increasingly serving as a safe haven for extremist groups backed by criminal mafias and certain political elements. The reported arrest of a top Taliban leader, Mulla Abdul Ghani Baradar, from the outskirts of Karachi in mid-February has only made this new dynamic clearer, and more ominous. The arrest not only proved that the network of al-Qaeda- and Taliban-linked fighters is well-entrenched and active across the north-south length of Pakistan; but the joint operation, conducted by Pakistan and American intelligence operatives, also sent a message that Pakistan might no longer be the safe haven that it once was. However, if the government fails to address ‘bread and butter’ issues – providing employment, controlling inflation and ensuring the availability of essential items – and the political parties continue to fight among themselves for narrow vested interests, the Taliban could still spring a surprise. If this happened, it would most likely be with the support of the sizeable fundamentalist-minded and generally disgruntled segments of Pakistani society.

The sheer number, scale and consistency of the attacks on Karachi are all adding to the worries of already disoriented city citizens. From October 2009 through mid-February, about 200 people have been killed in both politically motivated targeted killings and extremist blasts in various parts of Karachi, while several hundred more have been injured. Alongside, billions of rupees have been lost due to looting, arson and the closure of businesses during strikes that have been called by various political parties to highlight the lack of security. Yet while extremist attacks are getting much of the headlines and anger, the city has been under particular pressure due to the targeted killing of activists aligned with various political outfits – the Sindh-based Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) of the late Benazir Bhutto, the Pashtun-dominated Awami National Party (ANP), the sectarian Sunni Tehrik, the Islamist Jamaat-i-Islami and others. Incredibly, even as the violence mounts, the MQM, PPP and ANP technically remain in a coalition government together.

Most of the time, these assassinations are being carried out by workers aligned with one or the other of these parties. But after each spell of killings, as a response to public outrage, the parties have shifted the blame away from themselves, placing it instead on the ‘land mafia’ and other criminal elements. There is little attempt at introspection and weeding out violent elements from within their own rank and file. Of course, it has come as a shock to many that the three coalition partners in Sindh and in the federal government have been accused of involvement in the recent wave of violence and killings in Karachi, endangering, in addition to public safety, the survival of their own government in Sindh. It is no exaggeration to say that, with the cadre of all three heavily armed and trained in the use of firearms, clashes between the party workers now threaten to plunge the city into a prolonged bloodbath.

Complicating matters further, criminal elements are offering significant assistance to the extremists. Drug money and funds collected by the criminal mafia and extremists are being used to make inroads into various political and religious parties, which need funds to advance their political agendas. For instance, according to senior government officials, both the MQM and the ANP have dons at their behest extorting money, kidnapping for ransom and robbing banks, though both parties have dismissed such charges. Speaking on condition of anonymity, some Western intelligence operatives allege that some of these elements are enjoying the protection of those in the country’s establishment. This view is generally derived from the oft-repeated American reports that Islamabad might be sheltering Taliban fighters in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan.

Pakistani authorities have vehemently rejected such allegations, however, pointing to the manner in which, in recent months, the Pakistan military had gone into Swat and Waziristan to carry out attacks on militant strongholds. Pakistani authorities insist that most of the militants operating in Pakistan’s tribal areas are actually receiving funds and weapons from the Indian and Israeli agencies, purportedly as part of an ongoing proxy war via Afghanistan. Yet while Pakistani authorities claim to have evidence of Indian involvement in the attacks, they have yet to provide any credible evidence.

Bad for business
While the network of al-Qaeda and Taliban operatives is clearly active in Pakistan today, the apprehension that they will take over Karachi is misplaced. Currently, such scaremongering is being used by MQM sloganeers, evidently in a bid to attract Western support for assistance in easing out much of Karachi’s Pashtun community, who the muhajirs of the MQM view as posing a serious challenge to the party’s longstanding political control over the city. In the past, the MQM and Pashtun have fought ethnically motivated battles on the streets of Karachi, in which certain segments of the security agencies have played an important role. Most importantly, the Pashtun are politically divided between the ANP, the Jamaat-i-Islami and the Jamiat Ulema Islam, while offering almost no support to the MQM.

Critics of the MQM maintain that the party is deliberately using the bogey of Talibanisation to distract attention from its attempts to gain control of more land in the city (see Himal July 2009, “Capturing Karachi”). The MQM deputy convener, Farooq Sattar, has made the accusation that “large numbers of Waziris and Mehsuds fleeing operations in Pakistan’s insurgency-hit tribal areas are settling down in Karachi, undermining the security environment of the city.” Sattar says this anxiety on the part of the MQM has increased significantly over the past year, as tens of thousands of Pashtun have fled the fighting in Swat and Waziristan and arrived in Karachi. As a result, the ANP has suddenly gained strength in the metropolis. There are significant economics at stake, too, with the influx having implications for the hot commodity of Karachi real estate. Activists of all Sindhi political parties are involved in land-grabbing, and the MQM has long been one of the most powerful in this regard. But the growing Pashtun community has led to a strengthened ANP, which evidently is now cutting into what the MQM sees as its ‘business’.

Meanwhile, the MQM has long used its clout over the now-dissolved local-bodies system of the city district government, which completed its four-year term in October 2009 but was given an extension until 31 December. Pashtuns who ave settled in Karachi, as well as the ANP, are now demanding more representation on the ground. Thus, many now believe the appalling law-and-order situation in Karachi to be a direct result of MQM attempts to re-enforce the party’s political and administrative control of the city, in the face of the ANP challenge. The warnings of a ‘growing’ Talibanisation represent a potent card, given the significant support for the ANP that comes from the Pashtun community, accused of harbouring Taliban fighters.

At this critical junction, the provincial government has expressed its determination to restore law and order in Karachi. In this context, it has called upon the police and paramilitary Rangers to use “ruthlessness”, and to shoot suspected extremists on sight. But all the while, the trust deficit between the political parties in Sindh is growing to a dangerous peak. Amidst the burgeoning volcano, one cannot rule out the possibility of a collapse of the PPP-MQM alliance during the upcoming local elections. Given the trends of recent months, such a turn of events would be politically catastrophic, plunging the city into a cycle of violence that could resemble the volatile times of the early 1990s.


(Published in HIMAL SouthAsian's March 2010 issue)

Shamim-ur-Rahman is a journalist in Karachi.